Revisiting the Erik Karlsson trade, nearly 4 years later.

It's hard to believe that it has been almost 4 years since perennial Norris trophy candidate Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators in a moved that shocked the Senators' fan base and sent Karlsson across North America to sunny San Jose where he would join the Sharks. For many fans in Ottawa it was a day of mourning as the team said goodbye to a truly franchise-defining player in Karlsson, however looking back at that now infamous trade from September 13th, 2018 fans are likely to feel very differently about how it all turned out.

Although neither general manager Pierre Dorion of the Ottawa Senators or general manager Doug Wilson of the San Jose Sharks could have known it at the time, this would go down as one of the biggest steals in modern National Hockey League history.

First let's look back at what each side got in the deal.

San Jose Sharks.

D- Erik Karlsson

F - Francis Perron

Ottawa Senators.

F -Chris Tierney

F - Rudolfs Balcers

D - Dylan Demelo

F - Josh Norris

Unprotected first round draft pick at the 2020 NHL Entry Draft.

Sorting out the situation for the Sharks is relatively simple. Karlsson remains on their roster, signed to an 8 year deal that carries an average annual value and cap hit of $11.5 million per season, while Perron briefly played for the Sharks' American Hockey League affiliate before being traded to the Vancouver Canucks and eventually taking his career overseas.

Since being acquired by the Sharks, Karlsson has been hampered by injuries that have resulted in him performing below what would normally be expected of a player of his caliber. Making matters even worse has been the fact that, with the exception of his first season with the Sharks, the Sharks have finished in the bottom half of their division every season since Karlsson has been on the roster.

This of course leads us right into the return for the Ottawa Senators, one that in retrospect appears catastrophic for the San Jose Sharks.

Perhaps the least impactful piece of the deal was forward Rudolfs Balcers who, despite playing part of two seasons with the Senators, would eventually be waived only to be claimed back by the Sharks on waivers.

Chris Tierney proved to be a solid veteran presence up the middle of the ice for the Senators before departing after this past season and signing with the Florida Panthers as an unrestricted free agent.

Dylan Demelo was also solid for the Senators on the blue line before being traded to the Winnipeg Jets in 2020 for a third round draft pick at that year's draft that would eventually become Finnish goaltending prospect Leevi Merilainen.

The real pain begins however when we get to Josh Norris, a young centerman that was drafted 19th overall by the San Jose Sharks at the 2017 NHL Entry draft, one that has developed into one heck of a player for the Ottawa Senators. Norris is coming off a breakout season that saw him record 35 goals and 20 assists for a total of 55 points over just 66 regular season games, and it's hard to imagine that former Sharks general manager Doug Wilson isn't kicking himself over the decision to include Norris in the package.

That may not have even been Wilson's biggest blunder of the deal however, as his decision to include an unprotected draft pick has quite literally changed the landscape of the NHL as we know it. Upon signing Karlsson to a new contract at 8 years x $11.5 million, Wilson and the Sharks forfeited their first round draft pick at the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, a pick that was not lottery protected.

In a shocking turn of events, the Sharks would go from being second in the Pacific with 101 points during the 2018 - 2019 regular season to finishing with just 63 points the following season with the Western Conference's worst record. This would result in the Sharks forfeiting a lottery pick to the Ottawa Senators, one that would turn into talented young forward Tim Stutzle. Much like Norris, Stutzle is coming off a breakout season of his own with 22 goals and 36 assists for 58 points in 79 regular season games and in this case Doug Wilson is definitely kicking himself.

As a result of Wilson's blunder nearly all first round picks included in NHL trade deals since the Erik Karlsson trade are now lottery protected, no matter how improbable the odds of the selection becoming a lottery pick appear to be. Unfortunately for the Sharks that lesson has come at a major cost to their franchise.